Abstract

Paleoclimate records can be considered low‐dimensional projections of the climate system that generated them. Understanding what these projections tell us about past climates, and changes in their dynamics, is a main goal of time series analysis on such records. Laplacian eigenmaps of recurrence matrices (LERM) is a novel technique using univariate paleoclimate time series data to indicate when notable shifts in dynamics have occurred. LERM leverages time delay embedding to construct a manifold that is mappable to the attractor of the climate system; this manifold can then be analyzed for significant dynamical transitions. Through numerical experiments with observed and synthetic data, LERM is applied to detect both gradual and abrupt regime transitions. Our paragon for gradual transitions is the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition (MPT). We show that LERM can robustly detect gradual MPT‐like transitions for …

Metadata

publication

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 39 (1), e2023PA004700, 2024

year

2024

publication date

2024/1

authors

Alexander James, Julien Emile‐Geay, Nishant Malik, Deborah Khider

link

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2023PA004700

resource_link

https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10537510

journal

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

volume

39

issue

1

pages

e2023PA004700