Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms behind any changes in the climate system often requires establishing the timing of events imprinted on the geological record. However, these proxy records are prone to large uncertainties, which may preclude meaningful conclusions about the relative timing of events. In this study, we put forth a framework to estimate the uncertainty in phase relationships inferred from marine sedimentary records. The novelty of our method lies in the accounting of the various sources of uncertainty inherent to paleoclimate reconstruction and timing analysis. Specifically, we use a Monte Carlo process allowing sampling of possible realizations of the time series as functions of uncertainties in time, the climate proxy, and the identification of the termination timing. We then apply this technique to 15 published sea surface temperature records from the equatorial Pacific to evaluate whether we observed …

Metadata

publication

Paleoceanography 32 (11), 1275-1290, 2017

year

2017

publication date

2017/11

authors

D Khider, S Ahn, LE Lisiecki, CE Lawrence, M Kienast

link

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016PA003057

resource_link

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016PA003057

journal

Paleoceanography

volume

32

issue

11

pages

1275-1290